Blogbat

 

 

Here are the nuts and bolts:

 

The survey shows that most Europeans feel that both the overall economic situation and the employment situation in Europe is going to get worse: 37% and 42% respectively.

 

If we are to gage the poll, the main overall resistance to Turkey joining the EU has to do with the employment scene. Currently half of Europeans are concerned with employment. Terrorism ranked 10% in 2005, below crime and the economy (both garnering in the mid-20’s percentile). Only 2% were concerned with defense or foreign affairs (I guess because America has to take care of that for them…) However, those countries most likely to be directly and immediately affected by Turkey joining the union at the same time have strong overall support for the EU.

 

Member states with the highest EU favorability rating were naturally central continental states like Luxembourg 80% (still down 5% in the past six months), the Netherlands 77% (down 2%), Spain 66% (down 6%), Germany 58% (down 2%), and so forth.

 

Some Europeans are still at odds about whether it’s such a good idea for them to be in the EU however. Of those surveyed, 36% of Britons (from 38%) thought being in the EU was a good idea, along with countries like Hungary at 42% (down from 49%) and regions such as Scandinavia in the 40 percentile (seeing reductions of about 3% in the past six months). The numbers almost repeat with the percentages of local populations who feel that they have benefited from being part of the EU (page 13).

 

What’s interesting too from the survey is that as a rule economically better off Franco-Germanic and some of what we consider Slavic countries (altogether France, Germany, the UK, Scandinavia, Hungary, Latvia, Estonia and so on) rate the idea of EU membership very poorly. While generally poorer countries like Turkey, Spain, Italy, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece tend to be more enthusiastic.

 

The numbers diverge a bit though when it comes to trusting EU institutions; while the UK still remains around 35% (and is actually up 4%), Germany is next in line at the bottom at 46%, with Hungary leading the confidence meter at 71%. The numbers are fairly similar among member countries with respect to supporting a European constitution, as well.

 

As for overall support for a constitution, it has dropped 7% since 2004, from 68-61%, with a 2% increase in those unsure and a 6% increase – to 23% among those against.

 

Also, support for future enlargement of the EU has dropped by 3% since 2004 to 50%, and that 3% has gone directly into the camp of those against: now 38%. Naturally, Germany and France, who arguably have the most immediately to lose, are among the strongest opponents of expanding the EU.

 

Now the following data should tell Americans much of what we suspected about why policy opinion on a variety of matters in Europe is so skewed: the survey shows that 70% of Europeans get their news and information from television, 43% from newspapers. Both of these areas are decreasing while at the same time more Europeans are getting their information from the internet (22% - up 1% over 2004). But, this doesn’t necessarily mean Europeans are becoming more active in gathering their information: 10% say they’re disinterested in staying up on the latest, and that’s up 2% from 2004. Given that European broadcast and for the most part print media are monolithic in their worldview, it’s not surprising then the sentiments parroted by many Europeans whose lives prevent them from finding balancing information elsewhere.

 

Good news however on the national defense front. Though most Europeans are apathetic about this to say the least, almost 80% support a common defense and security policy (which seems presently however to still rely heavily on the Americans bailing them out). Naturally, the countries strongest in favor of a common defense however are strangely similar to the ones who suffered the most trouble during the past century: France, Germany, Poland, and former Soviet bloc countries.

 

But in the real test of unity, Europeans are still unsure about the idea of having a common foreign policy – something that can get really sticky if push comes to shove.

 

 

Democracy in the EU: Dead on Arrival?

 

 53% of Europeans feel that their voice does not matter in the EU, up 1% from 2004; only 38% feel their voice counts, conversely down 1%.

 

One thing the EU experience has done though is make Europeans feel much better about how democracy works in their home countries. Since 1999, positive sentiment has increased to the mid-to-upper 50 percentile from the mid-to-upper 40 percentile prior. There’s nothing like a rude secretary to make your wife look friendly again, I suppose. But this also seems to point to trouble ahead for true political bonding among the European nation-states.

 

Of those most pleased with how democracy works in their own countries, Denmark tops the list, with 92% of Danes feeling happy with their sense of freedom and popular control (and why not while their press certainly exercises less political censorship than does even their American counterparts today). Some say Denmark’s press is out of control of course, thanks to the Mohammed cartoons, but one could say the same thing about Turkey’s state-run movie industry and its anti-Semitic films, couldn’t they? Meanwhile the UK, France and Germany faired in the mid to upper 50 percentile and Hungary and Poland still ranked themselves low - in the 20’s.

 

 

Conclusion

 

That said, a sizable majority still support the monetary union: 59%. The UK of course, generally does not and France generally does, so this seems to even out.

 

Another interesting set of stats: Most Europeans think the most important place for their tax money to go is for the bureaucracy: 31%, up 7% over 2004. Nowhere on the survey was anyone even asked about military expenditures, though foreign policy is dropping in priority from 15% in 2004 to 13% in 2005. If ever there were a need for a balanced and establishment-opposition media, I suppose this would exemplify it.

 

I think the strangest trends from this poll however are that while Europeans seem to want the money to go in the directions indicated above, they seem to think that EU actions should run counter to their funding (e.g. 80% supporting a unified defense policy), at least to some extent: Fighting unemployment understandably garnered 47% (+3%), fighting poverty, 44% (+4%) (I thought this was John Kerry’s socialist utopia – what’s the deal with all this poverty and unemployment, I ask), maintaining peace, security 31% (-4%), fighting terrorism 19% (-8%), fighting organized crime and drug trafficking 25% (-5%).

 

Europeans are seeming to become more isolationist and withdrawn in how they spend their money, while supporting such vital ideals as defense only in lofty words. Meanwhile, the European establishment elites still run things as they always have, completely unchallenged by journalists (whom incidentally, as in France, they license), who obligingly tell the masses what to think and do. All the while, the creation of the EU superstate only promises to confer more power to those elites and even less to the people. In this way the old boys of Europe seem immensely secure in doing business as usual (well, that is until the Islamofascists overrun them). This of course is very bad for Europe and for Europeans – and everyone who trades with them, but Europeans for the most part simply are not getting it.

 

My prescription: a freer and more diverse press and more liberalized democracy. A sure way to prosperity and security is giving more power to the people. Well, I suppose that’s why we had our little revolution isn’t it?

 

Best of luck across the pond.