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September 08, 2009

Iran Stalls Again on Nukes; Buys Time

 

 

Stratfor is saying that “Iran: Tehran To Submit New Nuclear Package To P-5+1”:

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Sept. 8 that Tehran will submit a new package of proposals “in light of the current developments in the world” to the P-5+1 group, Press TV reported. The P-5+1 group — the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council (the United Kingdom, China, France, Russia and the United States) plus Germany — is involved in talks over the Iranian nuclear program. “We hope that we can organize a new round of negotiations within the framework of the new package,” Mottaki said.

 

Fat chance. Right now, Iran has no intention of cooperating in any real way, and certainly not as Russia, North Korea, and others continue to lend material support and states like Syria provide moral support to much of what the regime would like to do. Meanwhile, Ahmad Vahidi has been chosen as Iran’s new defense minister. As Jane’s Intelligence Weekly reports, Vahidi is a known terrorist wanted by Interpol for the murder of 85 people from a bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires in 1994.

 

Meanwhile, Russia continues to work with Iran’s allies Syria and Venezuela – both of whom have been involved in nuclear weapons-related activity over the past few years – partly with North Korea – and Venezuela continues to be an important source of uranium. Iran and China both have been involved in close proximity in Africa, where Iran has also been involved in trying to extricate uranium, according to a 2006 UN report. Venezuela is also increasing its oil supply to Iran, which one finds on its face rather strange considering Iran is an oil exporter. Announcing the agreement, Chávez, who just finished a whirlwind tour “that has taken him to Algeria, Libya and Syria, and will continue in Russia and Belarus”, also interestingly vociferously denied there was “any proof” of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. So far, Iran and Venezuela have signed over 300 various agreements. We’d like to mention at this point that all of this looks pretty suspicious and would recommend that someone take a look at every single one of those oil containers, preferably with a Geiger counter in hand.

 

All of this is particularly troubling, bearing in mind the rising threat and international concern over electromagnetic pulse (or EMP), which could utilize a primitive nuclear warhead detonation at high altitude to literally wipe out the electrical systems and electronics of an entire continent potentially. Such a device, if used, would be an international game-changer, particularly since retaliation would be extremely difficult given the anonymous way in which such a weapon could be deployed.

 

Russia seems ready to turn its back on considering a commitment to Israel not to sell S-300 missiles to Iran, upon revelations that it may soon be helping Syria upgrade its MiG fleet and some rather interesting secret discussions with Iranian officials in Abkhazia, "is home to several Soviet-era nuclear facilities". All of this seems to indicate that Moscow is still in the mood to sell equipment that will project the wrong kind of power in the already unstable region. It now appears clear that only Russia can reset its relations with the rest of the world; something most understood all along.

 

Indeed, it would be safe to say with the arming of terrorist groups and the Middle Eastern and African regimes that directly sponsor them as well as commit their own egregious violations of human rights, that the world would be a lot safer and a lot better off if both Russia and China would turn away from their proxy belligerence. The chances of that in the near future, however, are slim, which is why the US and its allies need to invoke a foreign policy that is both realist in the sense that it accepts the way things actually are, as well as idealist, which develops a common sense path to a world that is truly free of states that sponsor terrorism, proxy aggression, menacing nuclear proliferation, genocide, and other internal and external acts of disregard for human rights and international security.

 

 

Related:

 

Read my recent article at the Henry Jackson Society on Russia and the Middle East: Russia in the Middle East: Progress or Strategy Change-Up

 

Read my transcription of Avi Schnurr's address to members of the British Parliament at an event hosted by the Henry Jackson Society: The EMP Threat: A Strategic Review of Geopolitical Risk Scenarios

 

 

Posted by Martin at September 8, 2009 10:32 PM

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